BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – Higher road fuel prices are projected to increase European Union transport costs by an estimated €53 billion in 2026. The estimate was released by Transport & Environment on September 23 after analyzing 28 weeks through September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel expenditures with the same period last year, adjusting for inflation. Of the additional costs, approximately €40 billion are attributable to diesel. The calculation encompasses diesel and petrol expenses related to road transportation.
According to T&E, increased fuel prices added an average of €270 million daily to the EU’s road transport expenses. Diesel contributed roughly €203 million of this daily increase, with petrol accounting for about €67 million. The group linked this rise to tighter refined-fuel supplies caused by the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries. These disruptions widened the disparity between crude oil prices and refined products, particularly diesel. Diesel and gasoil make up around 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
European Commission has also reported notable volatility in crude oil and refined-product markets, especially for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU currently faces no immediate oil supply issues. The group noted that increased EU refinery output and alternative global supplies continue to meet demand, while commercial and emergency stocks remain adequate. The Commission emphasized that geopolitical uncertainties continue to cause significant price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Diesel Prices Impact Drivers and Freight Companies
For drivers, T&E estimated that the average EU diesel vehicle owner spent around €142 more during the study period. By September 14, the group calculated a €30 surcharge on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict levels. Long-haul trucks in Germany faced an average weekly additional fuel cost of about €236. With approximately 6.2 million trucks operating across Europe, higher diesel prices have also impacted road freight operators and other commercial fuel consumers.
Diesel remains a key fuel in EU road transport and freight activities. T&E reported that in 2024, 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption was attributed to road transport. Data from Eurostat indicate that gas and diesel oil provided 63.2% of the energy used in road transport that year, with motor gasoline accounting for 26.9%. Renewables and biofuels supplied 6.2%, and electricity made up 0.7%. Diesel and gasoline alone delivered 90.1% of the energy for road transportation in 2024.
EU Fuel Price Trends Under Continued Observation
On September 24, the European Commission updated its Weekly Oil Bulletin, offering the latest consumer petroleum prices across EU member states. The bulletin tracks weekly prices both with and without taxes and maintains a historical record dating back to 2005. The update followed the end of T&E’s study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and publishes regular comparisons among member states. Its September 8 supply assessment identified diesel and jet fuel among the products experiencing substantial price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate based on the environmental group’s analysis, not an official EU figure. It calculates the additional expenditure on road fuels over the 28-week period in 2026. The report also examines the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, with diesel accounting for the majority of the projected increase. T&E advocates for measures to reduce diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. The EU continues to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption data across the bloc.