ROME / RankWire.AI / – The 2026 global cereal output is expected to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from the previous year’s record. The Food and Agriculture Organization noted that this total would still rank as the second-largest harvest in history. The new estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July forecast. This decline amounts to 61.1 million tonnes annually and marks the most significant year-on-year reduction since 2018.
Forecasted global maize production is now 1.309 billion tonnes, following weaker crop prospects that led to a downward revision. Ongoing summer heat and drought conditions negatively impacted yields in key European Union regions, particularly France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates prompted smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, resulting in both countries producing well above average maize quantities in 2026.
The forecast for world wheat production has been revised upward to 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Improved yield forecasts led to about 1.5 million tonnes increases for Canada and Morocco. Expectations for Russia and Ukraine also rose, although dry conditions in the European Union and United Kingdom reduced projections. Despite these positive revisions, global wheat production is still projected to be 3.8% lower than in 2025, maintaining its position as the second-largest crop in history.
Maize declines primarily responsible for global cereal downgrade
Estimated world rice production for the 2026/27 season stands at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest figure is supported by increased yields in Sri Lanka and improved results in Myanmar. These gains offset reductions observed in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption in 2026/27 will reach 2.965 billion tonnes, a modest rise of 0.2% from the previous season. While coarse grain and rice use are expected to grow, wheat consumption is projected to decline from last season’s high levels. World rice use is forecast at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food intake. Feed demand remains significant, particularly for barley in China and maize in the United States.
Global cereal reserves stay at historically comfortable levels
At the end of the 2027 seasons, worldwide cereal stockpiles are projected to total 947.2 million tonnes. This is 10.7 million tonnes lower than earlier forecasts but still 1.8 million tonnes above the opening stock levels. The cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the previous season’s 31.9%. Wheat reserves are anticipated to increase in Russia and Ukraine, while lower inventories of maize and barley have led to a more cautious outlook for overall stocks.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, representing an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from prior estimates. Despite this rise, the total remains below the record levels achieved in 2025/26. The uptick is largely driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. The international rice trade for 2026 is estimated at 60.5 million tonnes, although overall rice shipments are still 1.9% below the 2025 record.