PARIS, FRANCE / RankWire.AI / – The OECD has upgraded its 2026 worldwide growth estimate to 2.9%, driven by the economy’s resilience beyond initial expectations. This revision marks an increase from the 2.8% forecast issued in the organization’s June report. Conversely, the OECD has lowered its 2027 projection to 3.0% from 3.1%. Continued robust investment in artificial intelligence has been a key factor supporting production, trade, and overall economic activity. Nonetheless, rising energy prices and inflationary pressures persist across major economies.
According to the September Interim Economic Outlook, global growth slowed during the first half of 2026. The annualized rate declined to 2.6%, down from 3.6% during the latter half of 2025. Despite this slowdown, economic activity remained stronger than anticipated in many countries that import and export energy. Factors such as oil inventories, extra production outside the Gulf region, and alternative supply routes helped mitigate the energy shock. Additionally, lower oil demand from China contributed to balancing global energy markets.
The OECD emphasized that technology investment continues to be a vital source of economic support. Exports of semiconductors surged significantly in Korea and Japan, while China also experienced increased technology exports. Industrial output related to technology maintained rapid growth across much of Asia. Similar expansion was observed in the United States and several European nations. Consumer confidence improved in advanced economies after May, and unemployment rates stayed low in many countries. However, elevated fuel costs kept pressuring household purchasing power.
US economic growth accelerates while euro area remains sluggish
The US economy is forecasted to expand by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. The boost from AI-related investments supports economic activity, although slower consumer spending and weaker real income growth limit overall progress. Meanwhile, GDP in the euro area is expected to increase by 1.0% in both years, weighed down by higher energy prices and interest rates affecting regional activity. Japan’s economy is projected to grow 0.8% in 2026 before slowing slightly to 0.7% in 2027.
China’s economy is expected to grow 4.5% in 2026, then moderate to 4.2% in 2027. India is projected to expand 7.1% in the 2026-27 fiscal year, following 7.8% in the previous year, with growth slowing to 6.5% in 2027-28. Indonesia’s economy is forecast to grow 5.2% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027. Mexico’s economy is predicted to increase by 1.5% this year and 1.8% next year.
G20 inflation rises due to energy costs weighing on prices
Inflation remains a key challenge highlighted in the OECD outlook. G20 economies are expected to see headline inflation of 4.1% in 2026, up from 3.4% in 2025, with a forecast decrease to 3.6% in 2027. Advanced G20 nations are projected to experience inflation of 3.2% this year and 2.6% next year. The United States’ inflation rate is expected to drop from 3.6% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027. Euro area inflation is forecast at 3.0% and 2.9% respectively.
Rising energy prices have increased household expenses and reignited inflationary pressures in many economies, the OECD noted. Additionally, long-term government bond yields have climbed as public borrowing and debt servicing costs continue to rise. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann remarked that global growth has performed better than anticipated, despite remaining weaker than the previous year. The organization called for targeted temporary support measures, sustainable public finances, and enhanced long-term productivity. It also urged governments to expand skills, diversify energy supplies, and promote wider adoption of artificial intelligence.