GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its 2026 forecast for worldwide merchandise trade growth to 3.9 percent, a notable rise from the 1.9 percent projection issued in March. The organization attributed this positive revision to robust first-half trade performance, supply chain recalibrations, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite significant disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent during the initial half of 2026. The WTO now anticipates a 4.1 percent increase in merchandise trade for 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence played a pivotal role in trade growth during the first half of the year. Goods enabling AI, including semiconductors and servers, represented 47 percent of the global merchandise trade increase. Trade in these items surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that global expenditures on AI infrastructure are expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The surge in demand for computing hardware supported trade flows amid disruptions in other sectors caused by conflicts and transport challenges.
Adjustments in global supply chains responded to pressures from key commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Similarly, liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent over the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from other suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent, with global LNG exports decreasing only 1 percent. Worldwide container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting shifts to alternative ports and routes to sustain trade flows.
AI-enabled goods bolster global merchandise trade
While goods trade shows a more optimistic outlook, expectations for commercial services trade have softened. The WTO reduced its 2026 growth forecast for services trade volume to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent projected in March. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel, with international tourist arrivals decreasing by 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Overall, arrivals for the first half of the year increased only by 0.4 percent, with travel expenditure growth also experiencing a sharp slowdown between the first and second quarters.
Despite this, other service sectors recorded stronger results, with computer services exports rising 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter and an estimated growth of 12 percent in the second quarter. Exports of financial services increased by 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The WTO projects that commercial services trade volume will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027, while global GDP is expected to expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Regional disparities in trade growth persist
Projections for regional merchandise trade vary significantly across the globe. The WTO forecasts Asia will lead growth with a 9.9 percent increase in exports in 2026. North America is expected to see export growth of 5.7 percent, while Africa is projected at 5.6 percent. South America is forecasted to grow by 3.4 percent, whereas Europe might experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest contraction, with merchandise exports expected to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also varies considerably by region in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is anticipated to post 9.5 percent in merchandise import growth, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to increase by 1.4 percent, and Europe’s imports are projected to grow by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are forecast to decrease by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that the recent data demonstrated trade resilience while also underscoring the uneven vulnerability to economic and geopolitical shocks.