POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – By 2100, the land area affected by wildfires across Europe could almost triple, based on new research findings. The study forecasts a 192% rise in annual burned regions under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This research follows recent significant wildfires in 2026 that impacted parts of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The main climate factors identified driving these fires are hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study employed two fire models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers examined both a low-emissions trajectory, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower pathway indicates roughly 1.8°C of warming, whereas the higher reaches about 3.6°C. To better understand the impacts, socioeconomic factors were held constant in separate simulations to isolate their influence on wildfire frequency and extent.
Under the low-emissions scenario, one model projected an approximately 39% increase in land burned annually by the century’s end. A second model suggested a possible decline under lower warming levels, as it reflected the impact of historical human influence differently. Conversely, the high-emissions scenario models indicated significantly greater increases, particularly around the Mediterranean and over much of Western and Central Europe, some regions which historically experienced relatively few fires.
Models confirm emissions as a key factor in burned areas
The research demonstrates that future wildfire activity in Europe is strongly influenced by fire weather conditions and fire-management capabilities. Regional outcomes are also affected by factors such as population density, changes in vegetation, and land use. Maik Billing, the lead author from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explains that the analysis distinguishes between climate-driven fire weather and human activities that can modify fire spread.
Enhancements in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could reduce the total burned area by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. The potential reduction was more significant in the lower-emissions scenario and less so under more intense warming. Even with ongoing fire-management improvements, about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could see an increase in fire activity under strong climate change conditions. Co-author Thomas Hickler, affiliated with the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, notes these findings.
Effective fire management can help mitigate wildfire spread
These results come amid an intense wildfire season in Europe in 2026, characterized by dry conditions and extreme heat that have fueled numerous large fires. Southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, but northern regions were also affected. The projections go beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. Researchers attribute these patterns to climate-driven changes in fire weather, as rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells become more common.
The study clarifies that the projected 192% increase is not an unavoidable destiny but a modeled scenario based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions within the research. The analysis shows that under lower emission scenarios, the increase in burned area would be considerably smaller, and significant reductions could be achieved through improved fire management practices. However, even with stronger fire suppression efforts, increased fire activity under more severe warming remains likely. The findings highlight emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and fire management capacity as the main factors shaping Europe’s future wildfire landscape.