EuroWire, PARIS: European wheat prices fell for a third straight session on Friday, extending a retreat in the region’s benchmark grain market as ample exportable supplies continued to weigh on sentiment. Front-month May milling wheat on Euronext ended at 195.25 euros a tonne after touching 194.00 euros earlier in the day, its weakest intraday level since Feb. 19. The move kept the contract below the 200-euro threshold watched earlier in the week and left prices near their lowest levels in several weeks.
The latest decline followed a 2.4 percent fall in the previous session, when the May contract settled at 197.75 euros a tonne. That sequence has pulled Euronext wheat down from levels above 200 euros earlier this week and reinforced the broader softness visible in nearby grain prices. The market’s direction has aligned with official supply estimates showing larger crops and rising carryout stocks across major exporting origins, leaving little sign of the tightness that drove sharper swings in earlier seasons.
The clearest confirmation came from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s April assessment of the world wheat market. It said the 2025/26 season is set for record global production, up 6 percent from a year earlier, while global ending stocks are forecast to rise 9 percent to the highest level in five years. Stocks held by the world’s largest exporters are projected to jump 30 percent, the highest since 2009/10, adding to the supply cushion available to importers and weighing on benchmark prices.
Global stocks build
For the European Union, the same assessment pointed to a marked recovery from prior-year weather damage. EU wheat output for 2025/26 was forecast to rise 20 percent and reach the bloc’s largest harvest in a decade, while ending stocks were seen more than 45 percent above the previous year. Those figures matter directly for Euronext because the Paris market is the main pricing point for European milling wheat, and bigger regional availability has reduced the urgency for buyers to chase supplies in the nearby market.
European Commission market data showed that common wheat and flour exports in the 2025/26 marketing year had reached about 18.5 million tonnes by early April, compared with 22.1 million tonnes a year earlier. At the same time, the Commission’s latest cereals dashboard showed the May 2026 EU milling wheat futures term at about 198 euros a tonne, with later contracts higher at roughly 207 euros for September and 214 euros for December. Those figures reflected a market still priced below levels seen in March.
Exports and futures reflect pressure
The retreat in European wheat has taken place even as global price comparisons continue to show intense competition among exporters. Official data indicated that wheat offers from major origins remained broadly competitive, with European values no longer standing out as a premium market. That relative pricing backdrop, combined with the rebound in EU production and larger exporter-held inventories, has left the market focused more on abundant availability than on supply disruption, helping explain why rallies have struggled to hold.
Friday’s move left European wheat lower for the week and kept the market anchored near recent lows as the trade moves deeper into the 2025/26 season. With record global production, higher stocks in the main exporting countries and a recovered EU crop now embedded in official forecasts, the immediate price story has centered on supply rather than scarcity. For buyers and sellers across the grain chain, the latest Euronext slide reinforced how quickly plentiful availability can cap benchmark prices in Europe’s wheat market.